Predictive Policing
A problem-oriented approach to High Impact Crime
The Problem
High Impact Crime (HIC) such as violent assault, robbery and burglary impact negatively on citizens and their communities. The impact on victims and wider society is huge.
In the case of burglary, criminals intrude into a citizen's personal private space to steal valuables, causing fear and ongoing feelings of insecurity. A robbery may have a comparable impact resulting in post-traumatic stress.
Traditional approaches to High Impact Crime have tended to focus on police action alone, often using technological systems like Predictive Policing to analyse police data and local intelligence. However, a local, multi-stakeholder approach is more effective. While it may sound simple, working in partnership presents a number of challenges. Organisations with different interests, systems, cultures and resources must follow a common process to establish shared goals, identify and plan evidence-based responses to problems and act in a well-orchestrated manner to implement solutions. In addition, partnership working requires the sharing of data on safety and security.
The Tool
The ProHIC Tool enables stakeholders at a local level to more
effectively tackle High Impact Crime (HIC).
The Tool supports:
supports the police, municipalities, public prosecutor, citizens, businesses and other organisations to work together through the phases of the SARA problem-solving method (Scanning, Analysis, Response and Assessment) to reduce and prevent High Impact Crime.
The ProHIC Tool is used and issued on a national basis
its use is place and problem specific, focusing on one city or even one neighbourhood and on one or more types of High Impact Crime (HIC) such as burglary, assault, or robbery.
The ProHIC Tool is available in both Dutch and English
and provides advice and solutions proven to be effective in the fight against High Impact Crime.
Tool Components
The Book of Basics
Evidence-based crime prevention 'knowledge pearls'
Promotional materials
End-users
The ProHIC Tool is designed for use by:
The police
Municipalities
The public prosecutor’s office
Residents and other citizens
Local organisations and businesses
End-users from police, municipalities, "safety houses" (a Dutch multi-agency approach for complex cases), the police academy and the Ministry of Justice gave their feedback on Tool prototypes of the Book of Basics and the Manual. This feedback guided development of the final version of the Tool.
Timeline
Research undertaken
Observational research of working practices of a police information specialist and a police officer regarding use of Predictive Policing
Observational research of use of a specific geographical area relevant to the use of Predictive Policing data
Ten interviews with end-users from different disciplines, including the police, university, public prosecution, government and business.
Tool demonstration
An introductory workshop was held for the three Tool end-user groups: municipality; police; and Safety House North-Holland North (Veiligheidshuis Noord-Holland Noord).
The Safety House includes police, the municipality and the public prosecutor.
Tool demonstration was held on 8 November 2021, and was undertaken by seven end-users — two policymakers from the municipality and five police officers (including one from the Area HIC team). While originally planned for earlier in the year, demonstration workshops had to be postponed to later in 2021 due to the Covid-19 restrictions.
Implementation
Tool implementation activities during the CCI project
Tool implementation activities planned for the future
Sources
Sherman, L.W., and Cambridge University associates (2020) "How to Count Crime: the Cambridge Harm Index Consensus". Cambridge Journal of Evidence Based Policing 4, pp. 1–14. Available here.
Stevens, D., (2021).What works to prevent domestic burglaries? European Crime Prevention Network: Brussels, Belgium. Available here.
Weisburd, D., Farrington, D. and Gill, C. (2017) "What Works in Crime Prevention and Rehabilitation: An Assessment of Systematic Reviews". Criminology & Public Policy, vol. 16, no. 2, May, pp. 415–449.
Zoe, M. and Gill, P. (2021) "Systematic review and meta-analysis of risk terrain modelling (RTM) as a spatial forecasting method". Crime Science, vol. 10, no. 12, 16 June, pp. 1–11, available here.
Policy Implications
LEAs are increasingly expected to work in partnership to address everyday crimes that impact local citizens.
Working together, police, local authorities and other key stakeholders have access to better data, knowledge, capacity and resources to effectively tackle high-impact crime.
Data sources and methods should support partners in understanding and addressing high-impact crime. However, technological methods for tackling crime have mainly focused on police data and intelligence, and its role in informing police action. For example, many Predictive Policing systems rely on police data to identify locations at risk of crime and to target police patrols.
ProHIC is a valuable Tool developed to support the National Police of the Netherlands and relevant stakeholders in understanding and addressing high impact crime.
Acknowledgements
Armando Jongejan
Marian Krom
Paul van Soomeren
Bram van Dijk
Jaap de Waard
For further information about this tool, contact:
Armando Jongejan [email protected] +31 (0)6 53173803
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 787100
